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612 Ceros
612 Ceros
The markets just witnessed a MASSIVE options expiry, and the message is clear: this was NOT a bullish event. On May 29th, a staggering 84,000 BTC options expired with a put-call ratio of 0.88 and a max pain point at $75,000, representing a notional value of $6.2 billion. Simultaneously, 639,000 ETH options expired with a ratio of 0.81, a max pain of $2,200, and a notional value of $1.28 billion. 🚨 But here’s the kicker: Bitcoin SLID below $75k this week, failing to find support at the so-called "max pain" level. The market is bleeding, and the expected bounce never came. 😱 This wasn’t just a routine expiry; it was a structural unwind. With only 20% of the expiring options being monthly, the focus has now shifted dramatically to June, which now commands 40% of total open interest. But the damage is already done. Long positions couldn’t reclaim key levels before the deadline, and the GEX support zones crumbled. The risk appetite is evaporating, with altcoins and ETH beta plays taking the hardest hits. If there’s no fresh catalyst, short-term implied volatility (IV) will likely collapse post-expiry. 📉 The PCR data tells a nuanced story: 0.88 for BTC and 0.81 for ETH. These aren’t extreme bearish readings—they indicate a market that was cautiously neutral, not betting on a crash but hedging defensively. Volatility skew remained stable, with most activity reflecting the liquidation of pre-accumulated positions. IV for key expiries recovered slightly but remains under 35% across the board, suggesting further downside is limited but not impossible. This is the calm before the storm—or the lull before a deeper correction. 💡 The real battle now is whether liquidity will return.

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